Selling the draw is basically gambling.

Once again:
Backing = buying = going long = long
Laying = selling = going short = short

One of my friend’s favorite strategies is laying the draw, waiting for a goal and backing the draw to lock in a profit. I tried it and found it very mechanical and unsatisfactory.

Problems with selling the draw
1) Exposure: If you sell the draw at 3.5, you are risking 2.5 to win 1.
2) The non-favorite scores first: odds go against you and you need an exit strategy that won’t lock you into a loser. Only late in the game will a lead by the non-favorite begin to move the odds in your favor and if it’s 1 goal lead, your gambling that the favorite won’t score an equalizer.
3) The favorite scores- this should be good news but I’ve found that the odds move very little. Exiting after the favorite scores first gives a small amount f profit but not enough to offset the risk. The draw odds move late in the game: The period when the draw odds really begin to move is usually after 70 minutes. That means often you have 70 minutes of waiting before any meaningful move in the odds can make the trade worth the risk. Selling the draw is more about prayer than about skill. The idea of hedging with the Next Goal is cute but the liquidity is so bad that it might work for positions of a few pounds.
4) Draw odds swing hard only when the favorite takes a commanding lead of more than 2 goals or the match is about to end. Any lead by the non-favorite barely moves the odds unless it’s after the 80th minute.
5) You sell the draw and no one scores: If you’re trapped

selling the draw from kick-off and the score is 0-0 after 70minutes, the odds will plummet against you. You lose multiples of what you could possibly make.





Here's an example of how little the Draw odds can swing. Blackburn is leading 0-2 at the 25th minutes and the odds have moved form 4.0 at kick-off to 4.7. Compare this to the odds of Villa, below in the same interval.

Here's the same match, also at 25 minutes. Villa began at odds of just below 2.0 at kick-off. After going down 0-2, their odds swing to 12.

The best money is when odds swing hard and a trader knows how to work the market. What would you rather trade, the Draw or the favorite?